Knowledge Hub

Recently, the world has been transitioning towards renewable energy (RE) consumption. The smart grid, a pivotal factor in facilitating this transition, is an electricity network that integrates digital and information communication technologies to enhance the capacities of devices (e.g., smart metres, sensors, and automated control systems). It enables efficient communication, monitoring, control, and management of electricity within the network. Additionally, the smart grid ensures proper electricity generation and consumption, particularly when addressing the intermittency of RE sources like solar energy.

Accordingly, solar forecasting is one of the most critical components of renewable energy systems. The smart grid system relies on resilience and accuracy in power generation and consumption, and solar forecasting enhances the ability to predict the quantity of solar energy generated in advance. Solar energy production is highly volatile, depending on factors such as weather conditions and time of day. Accurate solar forecasting allows electricity operators to manage electrical loads effectively, reduce the risk of mismatched power generation and consumption, and improve the overall efficiency of the electrical power system.

Developing accurate solar forecasting requires diverse and high-quality datasets. These include specific weather data for a given area (e.g., temperature, humidity, wind speed, and cloud cover), technical details about the solar system (e.g., solar panel size, panel efficiency, and installation specifications), and information from the electricity network (e.g., power allocation data).

However, collecting datasets for forecasting models poses challenges. The data are often scattered across multiple sources, presented in varying formats and types, and serve different purposes. For instance, policymakers require an overview of the data to inform strategy development, while forecasting staff or researchers need detailed, specific information to improve accuracy. Meanwhile, the general public seeks simplified and easily understandable reports. These datasets may come in formats such as Excel, CSV, or PDF. These challenges are global in nature and significantly impact the quality and effectiveness of forecasting outcomes.

Therefore, standardising the collected datasets is essential for effective Big Data analysis and the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI). Without proper data management, analysis and AI integration cannot deliver the desired results.

Big Data and AI are pivotal tools for advancing solar forecasting. They can analyse large datasets from various sources, such as satellites, weather monitoring stations, and solar systems used by general consumers, providing a comprehensive view of power generation and consumption. They also enable the development of highly accurate forecasts. An Open Data Platform is another promising tool. This platform provides open access to solar energy-related information, such as data collected from household solar panel sensors, improving both local and national forecasting accuracy and fostering collaboration among public, private, and third-sector stakeholders.

However, the successful development of Big Data systems and Open Data Platforms requires consistent technological infrastructure and supportive policies that ensure safe and equitable information sharing. Such measures are crucial to maximising the benefits of solar forecasting development and creating a sustainable renewable energy system for the country.

Authors: Peetiphat Thirakiat, Varinthon Kessayom and Dr Siripha Junlakarn, Energy Research Institute (ERI), Chulalongkorn University.

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This article was originally published on greennews.agency as part of the project Clean, Affordable, and Secure Energy for Southeast Asia (CASE).

Thailand has huge rooftop solar potential that could offer both benefits of diversifying the country's renewable energy sources and enabling distributed generation at the consumer level through behind-the-metre installations.Despite a surge of rooftop solar PV installations in 2023, driven by high electricity prices, the current adoption rate of rooftop solar PV systems inThailand is still much lower than its vast potential. This gap is due to several policy, regulatory and financial risk barriers. This study systematically identifies the risks associated with rooftop solar PV investment in Thailand  and quantifies these risks’ impacts on financial costs (i.e., the cost of equity and the cost of debt). In addition, the study highlights suggested policy and financial de-risking instruments that can support rooftop solar PV deployment in Thailand.

Coral Life is a trailblazer in the provision of sustainable building solutions in Thailand, and the company has been making significant strides in the design and construction of energy-efficient buildings in Asia. The company was founded by James Duan, who has extensive experience in property development and wanted to address inefficiencies in traditional construction practices. Coral Life’s mission centers on creating innovative, energy-efficient buildings that not only minimize environmental impact but also enhance living and working conditions. The company’s pioneering efforts led to the development of the first house in Southeast Asia’s certified by Germany’s Passive House Institute (PHI), which sets a new standard for energy-efficient construction in the region.

Peter du Pont and Marc Tagub of SIPET recently sat down with Thien Juengwirunchodinan, Head of Marketing for Coral Life. In our conversation, Thien offered a candid look into the company’s evolution, its revolutionary technologies, and its aspirations for energy-efficient construction in Southeast Asia. This conversation offers a glimpse into how energy-efficient construction can be a key driver in achieving a sustainable energy transition.

The Context for Efficient Cooling

In a rapidly heating world, indoor cooling energy is a fast-emerging area of concern, and also innovation. According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2016 Future of Cooling report, “space cooling is the fastest-growing energy in buildings, both in hot and humid emerging economies were incomes are rising, and in the advanced industrialised economies”. Final energy use for space cooling in residential and commercial buildings worldwide more than tripled between 1990 and 2016, to 2020 terrawatt hours (TWh) per year. With the recent increase in temperatures, especially in Asia, which has been heating faster than the global average, this figure is going to continue to rise. However, innovations are underway to reduce cooling energy demand and the consequent energy costs, including in Southeast Asia. 

The Coral Life Approach

In Thailand, the Coral Life Group has been designing and building residential buildings that have lower indoor temperatures. It does so by eliminating heat transfer through effective building envelopes and low-flow ventilation strategies, which results in buildings with high thermal comfort and very low energy use.

Coral Life founder James Duan’s experience in property development in Greater Bangkok exposed him to the inefficiencies in residential construction. Determined to innovate, he committed Coral Life to the creation of energy-efficient, sustainable living spaces.

“It has always been our strategy to think about innovative buildings, innovative ways to introduce (quality of) living, and absolutely innovative ways to create living and working spaces,” said Thien Juengwirunchodinan, Head of Marketing at Coral Life.

This approach led the company to build a demonstration home in Thailand that meets the standard levels set by the Passive House Institute (PHI), which are the world’s most stringent standards for energy usage. Originating in Germany, these standards required adaptation for Thailand’s hot and humid climate. When Coral Life executed its cooling strategy in building a house near Suvarnabhumi Airport, the 200-square-meter residence became the first PHI-certified house in Southeast Asia. “This helped us understand what it takes and what can be achieved in being super energy efficient, given what was built,” Juengwirunchodinan said.

The results of this demonstration project were extremely encouraging.  “With a highly effective  building envelope and ventilation system, the energy bills for the house dropped from 15,000 baht (USD 415) per month to less than 2,000 baht (USD 55) a month, with most of the savings resulting from reduced cooling costs”, explained Juengwirunchodinan.

The Most Energy-Efficient Building in Thailand

In May 2023, Coral Life opened a new headquarters building in Sukhumvit 39 that executes these principles on a larger scale. It is now the most energy-efficient office building in Thailand, and uses  85% less energy than conventional structures. Juengwirunchodinan said that this is not only due to using the right materials, but also the techniques to assemble these materials. “The principles of a strong building envelope and proper ventilation strategies apply universally,” he asserted.?

A critical tool in Coral Life’s toolkit is its advanced humidity control system that maintains relative humidity within 40-60%. “When humidity is controlled, cooling a space becomes less energy-intensive, and people experience more thermal comfort as well,” Juengwirunchodinan said.

This approach leads to major energy savings, but the benefits do not end there. The building design also provides a high-quality indoor living experience. The electricity bills of Coral Life headquarters’ building are 70,000 baht (USD 1,900) per month, compared to 500,000 baht (USD 13,800) per month for a comparable commercial building.  These savings have been achieved without sacrificing comfort or functionality. The building is a functional office space, with lighting systems, ventilation and cooling systems, appliances and equipment, and plug loads, but the thermal comfort of the building is evident when one enters the space—with quiet, low-flow ventilation, relatively low-humidity levels and clean indoor air with near-zero levels of pollutants.

“It’s not about turning off everything that we don’t use, but about spending what (energy) we use efficiently,” Juengwirunchodinan pointed out.

The Challenges Ahead

One of the major challenges that Coral Life faces is to mainstreaming the design of efficient features into the construction of new buildings. “We are making some progress and are already developing buildings to high levels of efficiency for some of our clients”, says Juengwirunchodinan. " The biggest challenge is communication and awareness. It’s not a question of whether the efficient construction works. It’s a question of understanding how it works and convincing the client of the benefits and the win-win nature of this approach.”

Juengwirunchodinan also highlighted the importance of supportive government policies and financial incentives, such as green loans and tax breaks, which he says are crucial to facilitate much broader adoption of energy-efficiency building techniques. 

Coral Life’s journey underscores the huge potential of energy-efficient buildings in driving the energy transition. By demonstrating substantial cost savings, enhanced thermal comfort, and alignment with larger environmental goals, the company is setting a benchmark for sustainable urban living, and creating an inspiring vision for a future in which energy-efficient buildings will be the norm.

Peter du Pont is the Co-Founder and Co-CEO and Marc Tagub is the Team Leader – Knowledge Management and Stakeholder Engagement, for Asia Clean Energy Partners, a Bangkok-based company.

This paper by the Climate Finance Network Thailand evaluates the financial implications of decommissioning coal and gas power plants in Thailand. Using discounted cash flow analysis, it examines three scenarios, highlighting potential stranded asset risks and the need for strategic energy transition planning aligned with climate goals.

There is a significant decline reported in production in Thailand’s major gas fields, primarily located in the Gulf of Thailand. Recent reports indicate that Thailand's gas reserves are depleting, leading to a need to re-evaluate the country's energy strategy (Global Energy Monitor, 2024).

The depletion of domestic gas reserves has the following implications:

1. Energy Security: Reduced domestic production increases Thailand’s reliance on imported energy, particularly liquefied natural gas (LNG). This dependence exposes the country to global market volatility and geopolitical risks.

2. Economic Impact: Higher import costs for LNG can lead to increased energy prices for consumers and businesses, straining the economy. Moreover, investing in gas infrastructure for long-term contracts diverts funds from renewable energy projects.

3. Environmental Concerns: Transitioning from domestic gas to imported LNG has environmental impact, including the increased carbon footprint associated with LNG transport and lifecycle emissions from gas-fired power plants.

To address the decline, the Thai government has outlined strategic responses through its National Power Development Plan (PDP) 2018-2037. The plan aims to enhance energy security by significantly increasing natural gas’ contribution to the energy mix, reflecting a 13% rise from previous projections (Global Energy Monitor, 2024).

The PDP includes expanding LNG imports to offset declining domestic production. Thailand is boosting its LNG import capacity with significant investments in new terminals and infrastructure to maintain gas’ share at about 60% of the energy mix by 2030. However, an expected revision of the PDP will incorporate Thailand’s carbon neutrality targets.

While the transition to LNG imports provides a temporary solution, it introduces challenges such as vulnerability to global market fluctuations and the need for substantial infrastructure investments.

This implies that investments in new gas-fired power plants should account for the evolving roles of gaseous energy carriers in the power sector. It is essential to ensure that these power plants are prepared to switch from fossil fuel-derived gas to hydrogen when it becomes economically feasible, as hydrogen-fueled power plants necessitate different technical designs from those using fossil gas.

The Climate Finance Network Thailand (CFNT) released its recent study on the valuation of stranded assets in Thailand’s oil and gas sectors on 21 June 2024.

Stranded assets are investments that have become obsolete or non-performing due to changes in the market, regulatory environment, or technological advancements. Our study focuses on coal and gas-fired power plants in Thailand, which may need to be decommissioned earlier than their intended lifespan due to the country’s shift towards renewable energy.

The study employs a comprehensive discounted cash flow model to forecast the financial impact of decommissioning coal and gas power plants under three scenarios: Business-As-Usual, Rapid Transformation, and 100% Renewable Energy. Utilizing data from the GEM and financial records, the study calculates the potential values and the net present value (NPV) of stranded losses.

The results indicate significant risks of stranded assets from 2025 onwards. Under the Rapid Transformation and 100% Renewable Energy scenarios, a substantial portion of coal and gas-fired power plants may be decommissioned early, resulting in potential stranded losses of up to 360 billion THB and 530 billion THB, respectively. These figures highlight the financial overvaluation risks for major energy utilities in Thailand.

The transition towards a low-carbon economy, while environmentally essential, poses significant financial challenges. For investors, particularly those involved in the stock market and bond issuances, this transition could lead to substantial stranded losses. Major energy companies in Thailand, such as BGRIM, EGCO, GPSC, GULF, and RATCH, could face downside risks ranging from 6% to 61% of their market capitalization.

For policymakers, these findings emphasize the importance of strategic adjustments, including the need for a credible fossil phaseout plan. Engaging in global initiatives like the Just Energy Transition Partnership (JET-P) could provide financial support and facilitate a just and equitable energy transition.

For more detailed insights, please refer to the full report.

This blog is written by SIPET. It is the second part of From Coal to Clean: Mae Moh Smart City's Path to Sustainability

SIPET: What policies and project exchanges has the Mae Moh Smart City project, implemented that can serve as examples of facilitating the transition to clean energy?

Ketsirin: We support projects that promote economic diversification beyond coal, such as investments in green industries, sustainable agriculture, ecotourism, and technology sectors. We are trying to establish Green Job Centers to connect the traditional workforce with new job opportunities in green industries, and to provide career counseling services, job matching, and training programs. We are also supporting entrepreneurs and community enterprise groups by offering incentives, consulting programs, and access to resources for those interested in starting clean energy businesses or green industries in the area.

By supporting stakeholder engagement in decision-making processes, we can ensure that transition plans are comprehensive, responsive to local needs, and support improvements in the quality of life of residents in the area. Increasing investment in sustainable infrastructure projects and assisting unemployed individuals while supporting medical services during the transition period are also part of the strategy. Platforms for communication support state policy and stakeholder goals in transitioning to green industry and clean energy sources.

Editor’s Note: The Mae Moh Smart City project, under the leadership of Ketsirin Paengsen, has developed initiatives on smart environment, energy, and the economy. The project tackles the daunting challenges of moving away from coal while promoting sustainable development. Our conversation with Ketsirin highlighted a number of economic opportunities presented by the energy transition, such as the importance of equipping workers with skills needed for the future of clean energy. Ketsirin also emphasized the significance of collaboration—between EGAT, local communities, and international partners like IKI—in fostering economic resilience while enhancing the quality of life of the residents. The experiences and strategies she shared can offer valuable insights for other regions undergoing similar transitions.

Background: Mae Moh coal mine has been operating since 1951 and is the biggest lignite (brown coal) mine in Thailand. Presently, the mine is owned and operated by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (EGAT) to feed into Mae Moh coal-fired power plant in order to meet the country’s electricity demand. However, the coal reserve is projected to run out in the next 25 years. The coal production closure will undoubtedly affect thousands of jobs. EGAT is determined to transition the region away from coal to renewable energy by 2050. To ensure the sustainability of the transition, the plan needs a holistic approach which is the highlight of the story. 

The SIPET team had the opportunity recently to sit down with Ketsirin Paengsen, the Head of Mae Moh Smart City in Lampang, Thailand. Ketsirin leads the project and coordinates with the grassroots community and partners from the private and government sectors. This project is being implemented by EGAT and supported by multiple organizations, including Germany’s International Climate Initiative (IKI) through the Just Energy Transition (JET) project, since 2022.

In our interview, Ketsirin shares insights about the challenges and strategies of moving from coal to clean energy. As part of SIPET’s Labor Day commemoration this month, we also highlight the work done by Ketsirin and the Mae Moh Smart City team in building important skills for the energy transition in the coal region.

SIPET: What is the inspiration behind the establishment of the Mae Moh City project, and how does it align with EGAT’s mission and vision?

Ketsirin: EGAT’s Mae Moh Smart City Project is built around three main approaches: ‘Smart Energy’, ‘Smart Economy’, and ‘Smart Environment’. These initiatives are designed to develop Mae Moh into a low-carbon economy. This is in response to EGAT’s plan to phase out coal power production in Mae Moh by 2050. With the closure of the mine and power plants, Lampang's Gross Provincial Product (GPP) is projected to drop by about 17%, leading to substantial unemployment and economic decline. This project addresses this looming challenge by equipping workers with employable skills to manage this transition.

SIPET: How do EGAT and its partners contribute to developing a low-carbon society through the ‘Smart Environment’ approach?

Ketsirin: Under the ‘Smart Environment’ pillar, the Mae Moh Smart City project collaborates with professors from Chiang Mai University to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions. This is facilitated through a City Data Platform that manages data and information on air quality, energy, water, waste, greenhouse gases, and green spaces. EGAT has installed 44 air quality sensors across Mae Moh District, providing real-time data to monitor and prevent air quality issues. This system aids in the prompt detection and resolution of problems, with alerts distributed via Line OA. These alerts include information for the public on current, historical, and forecast air quality levels, as well as the locations of hotspots. Additionally, EGAT partners with Mae Moh District to address dust and forest fires by purchasing agricultural waste and converting it into fuel pellets, thereby reducing PM 2.5 pollution caused by open burning. This initiative not only generates income for the community but also helps mitigate PM 2.5 pollution.

SIPET: Could you provide more detail on how the ‘Smart Energy’ pillar contributes to creating a “Low Carbon Economy City”?

Ketsirin: For the ‘Smart Energy’ pillar, we focus on energy management. This includes the ‘Near Zero Energy Building Initiative’, which involves studying electricity consumption behavior and applying for funding to install solar PV on rooftops. The data collected is used to apply for funding from the Power Development Fund for installing solar PV on rooftops. To date, studies have been conducted for 22 agencies in Mae Moh District, with some already installing solar rooftop and battery systems to promote clean energy use. As electricity is still unstable in some areas of the district, this project has greatly supported the community in securing reliable electricity.

Secondly, the ‘Biomass Co-Firing Project’ uses agricultural waste such as corn biomass and bamboo waste from chopstick production to create biomass pellets. These pellets are then co-fired with coal at the Mae Moh power plant. This initiative generates income for the community by purchasing agricultural waste, reduces PM 2.5 pollution from open burning, and encourages communities to set up their own biomass pellet production facilities with knowledge support from EGAT. We also collaborate with the Thailand Research Fund (TRF) to analyze the value chain of biomass utilization from upstream to downstream, ensuring cost-effective and efficient management of agricultural waste removal and processing.

Lastly, EGAT has partnered with a vocational college in Lampang to promote understanding among youth about the conversion of internal combustion engine vehicles to electric vehicles. This project has introduced 28 electric minibuses to replace diesel buses for employee transportation, reducing pollution and small particulate emissions. This aligns with the national policy on carbon neutrality. Additionally, the project receives support from GIZ to develop local workforce skills, enhancing their expertise and readiness for the future EV market.

SIPET: That’s good to know! How about your initiatives under the ‘Smart Economy’ approach? Could you please elaborate?

Ketsirin: For the ‘Smart Economy’ pillar, we initiated the Mae Moh Agricultural Community Project, aiming to promote careers and generate income for the relocated community of Ban Dong Subdistrict. Due to limitations in land and water resources, EGAT has collaborated with Distar Fresh Co. Ltd., a vertical farming expert, to integrate technology into agriculture and transfer this knowledge to the community. This initiative marks the first vertical farming operation in Northern Thailand, producing 1 ton per month and selling directly to consumers through online markets. The local vertical farming enterprise, operated by community youth under the Mae Moh Agricultural Community Co., Ltd., has branded its products as "Mae Moh Fresh”.

Watch this video to learn more. 

SIPET: This is really interesting, and it sounds like a very important project. What specific initiatives has EGAT undertaken to prepare for a just energy transition for workers and communities affected by the phasing out of coal?

Ketsirin: EGAT has implemented several projects to support a just energy transition, focusing on skills training programs, community development projects, and collaboration with GIZ to ensure inclusive decision-making. These efforts aim to create new job opportunities and improve the quality of life for affected communities. By organizing training programs to assist workers in acquiring new skills related to renewable energy, EGAT aims to create readiness and opportunities for the local workforce. Additionally, by collaborating with industries and businesses to match job positions with existing skills, EGAT is initiating community development projects to stimulate the local economy and create new job opportunities.

Furthermore, collaborating with GIZ to involve labor groups and communities in decision-making processes related to various transitions in the area ensures the involvement of all stakeholders in a fair and comprehensive transition process. These initiatives will be presented to the government and policymaking sectors for future implementation. This approach minimizes the impact on labor groups and communities while promoting sustainable development in the region.

SIPET: What are the main challenges in transitioning from coal to renewable energy while ensuring economic sustainability?

Ketsirin: If EGAT ceases coal power production in Mae Moh by 2050, the loss of business will reduce Lampang's GPP from THB 71 billion (USD 1.9 billion) to THB 59 billion (USD 1.6 billion), significantly impacting the province's primary industrial sector. The decrease in production capacity will lead to unemployment, affecting the economy of Mae Moh District and neighboring areas. This would lead to substantial unemployment and economic decline. Upgrading infrastructure to support renewable energy will also require substantial investments. Due to the projected decrease in GPP, Lampang might face budget issues necessary for upgrading its energy infrastructure from reliance on coal to developing large-scale sources of renewable energy.

Upgrading power infrastructure to support renewable energy will require substantial investments in energy-related technology and systems. Communities accustomed to the coal industry will need education and support to adapt to new careers and economic activities. As Mae Moh transitions to a clean energy area, workers will need to enhance their skills and prepare for future opportunities, ensuring that they can continue to find employment in the area.

In sum, it will require significant amounts of funding to transform Mae Moh into a renewable energy hub, with reduced funding from the Power Development Fund posing an additional challenge.

SIPET: How are you overcoming these challenges?

Ketsirin: Collaboration is key. The Mae Moh Model emphasizes communication and education. We maintain continuous communication channels with stakeholders, including the public, government agencies, local authorities, and private sector networks. By collaborating with local communities and relevant agencies, we co-develop clear plans and goals, leveraging partnerships with the government and the private sector, academic institutions, and research organizations.

For example, the Innovation Regions for a Just Energy Transition (IKI-JET) has been a valuable partner, collaborating with EGAT to conduct studies, develop transition plans, and implement projects on ‘Green Job' skill development to engage us in knowledge exchange with other coal-using countries.

SIPET: Based on past operations, how has IKI JET contributed or provided recommendations related to a just transition, particularly in terms of careers and creating a sustainable local economy?

Ketsirin: IKI JET has facilitated learning exchanges and policy changes to support the clean energy transition. For instance, in January 2023, EGAT was invited to engage with experts to discuss the vocational skills of local workers and the employment situation following the cessation of coal usage. Additionally, in October 2023, we participated in a forum held in Germany. During this event, we gained insights into gender equality issues in the energy transition process. The forum, which included 45 participants from various countries, delved into a range of topics, including economic decline in coal regions, labor issues, and post-mine restoration.

A number of forums, including The Coal Regions Knowledge Hub, have enabled knowledge-sharing among experts, policymakers, and stakeholders, promoting cooperation and sustainable development in the region. In order to ensure that workers have the necessary skills for economic transformation, it is important to prioritize skills development in clean energy for the local workforce.

For part 2: here.