To obtain empirical evidence of the coal transition in coal-producing regions, namely Paser in East Kalimantan and Muara Enim in South Sumatra, IESR has conducted research since 2021. The purpose of this study is to comprehend the dynamics and provide a strategy for addressing the socio-economic impact of the transition away from coal, as well as a proposal for the economic transformation of this region post-coal, to ensure that the people and communities in this region will not be abandoned during a just transition. We hope that the outcome will eventually facilitate a just transition away from coal in the most affected regions and communities

Key enablers: technology, finance and capacity building

Fifteen out of 17 LTS we analysed acknowledge the need for R&D in key technologies crucial for their long-term transformations, and many explicitly identify it as a priority and international cooperation area. While most G20 members acknowledge the role of climate finance, only six of the 17 we analysed include quantitative estimates in their LTS. We also identify a further lack of details on how adequate climate finance will be mobilised for their long-term transformations. Only five G20 members refer to their existing commitments or mention their intention to provide international climate finance.

Headline targets

Sixteen of the 17 LTS present a net zero target. Twelve of them target net zero by 2050, whereas Germany aims for 2045, China and Indonesia 2060 and India 2070. The UK is the only G20 member to cover emissions from international aviation and shipping in its net zero target.

Sectoral targets

All G20 countries we analysed have sectoral decarbonisation targets or plans in their LTS. Most countries prioritise such plans for the power, buildings, agriculture, industry, and transport sectors, and fewer countries prioritise the waste sector.

Energy

While 16 G20 members refer to renewable energy as a key part of their decarbonisation strategies, only a few provide specific targets. Most G20 members also consider hydrogen a key decarbonisation opportunity, with applications in industry, transport, refining, and power sectors

Fossil fuel phase out

While several G20 members mention plans to reduce their dependence on fossil fuels gradually, France is the only G20 member to commit to phasing out fossil gas and oil exploration on its own territory in its LTS.

Residual emissions

The G20 countries we assessed aim to reduce on average 72-81% of their 2019 emissions by 2050. To achieve net zero, these residual emissions must be offset with CDR, either through nature-based or engineered methods. Ten of the 17 LTS provide assumptions on nature-based or engineered CDR.

A call for more ambtion form the Indonesian Civil Society: The Indonesian government must immediately stop the construction of 13 GW of coal-fired power plants which are still in the RUPTL and 15 GW of captive coal plants under construction for industrial purposes 

Indonesia’s JETP requires the country to cap its power sector emissions at 290 million tonnes in 2030, but more specific requirements are needed to speed up coal retirement and make space for renewables.

The project is a part of ETP's program, in collaboration with the Department of Oil, Gas, and Coal, Ministry of Industry and Trade, to support the transition of the coal, gas, and oil sectors in Vietnam towards a clean energy future while prioritizing people's well-being. The project aims to identify technical, social, and policy challenges to transition towards renewable energy and produce practical roadmaps to address them. Additionally, the project intends to devise strategies to repurpose coal assets effectively and develop comprehensive social protection packages to support affected workers and communities for social stability in Vietnam. The project aligns with Vietnam's National Energy Master Plan and its commitments to the Paris Agreement.

Decision on launching the Secretariat for the Political Declaration on establishing the Just Energy Transition Partnership.

TransitionZero’s Coal Asset Transition (CAT) Tool is an open data product to help refinance and replace coal plants in an affordable and just way.

The metrics the CAT Tool estimates plant-by-plant include, but are not limited to, the cost to ‘buy-out’ Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs), the cost of replacing with clean energy alternatives and the potential savings from early retirement, as well as the social costs of air pollution, water use and climate change.

The CAT Tool can be used for:

• High-level screening to identify regions to prioritise for phaseout based on various screening metrics

• Asset-level deep dives into financial metrics, operating costs, and environmental and social externalities

• Identifying candidates for coal phase-out at the asset level based on criteria most important to the end user

The first iteration of this tool covers all coal plants in Indonesia - a major coal-dependent economy with a net-zero target and high potential for coal transition finance. The CAT tool is published as a web app, methodology document and excel spreadsheet, which we plan to continuously update every six months. We plan to expand CAT to cover other countries.

Leaders from Vietnam and the International Partners Group, including the European Union, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, the United States, Italy, Canada, Japan, Norway and Denmark have today (14 December) agreed a bold Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP).

The Partnership will support Vietnam to deliver on its ambitious Net Zero 2050 goal, accelerate the peaking of its greenhouse gas emissions and transition away from fossil fuels to clean energy.

The JETP will mobilise an initial $15.5 billion of public and private finance over the next three to five years to support Viet Nam’s green transition.

The Partnership will support Vietnam in working towards a number of ambitious new targets:

• Bringing forward the projected peaking date for all greenhouse gas emissions in Viet Nam from 2035 to 2030.
• Reducing peak annual power sector emissions by up to 30 percent, from 240 megatons to 170 megatons, and bringing forward the peaking date by five years to 2030.
• Limiting Vietnam’s coal capacity to 30.2 gigawatts down from a current planning figure of 37 gigawatts.
• Accelerating the adoption of renewables so that renewable energy accounts for at least 47 percent of electricity generation by 2030, up from the current planned generation share of 36 per cent.

The successful delivery of these ambitious targets will result in around 500 megatons (0.5 billion tonnes) of emissions saved by 2035.

Initial contributions to the Vietnam JETP include $7.75 billion in pledges from the IPG together with the Asian Development Bank and the International Finance Corporation. This is supported by a commitment to work to mobilise and facilitate a matching $7.75 billion in private investment from an initial set of private financial institutions coordinated by the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ).

Over the next 12 months, Vietnam will work with the support of partner countries to develop and adopt the Viet Nam JETP Resource Mobilisation Plan, which will enable the implementation of the JETP funding and strategy.

Vietnam is the third country to launch a JETP, following the successful launch of the South Africa JETP at COP26 and the Indonesia JETP at this year’s G20 Leaders’ summit. As a rapidly growing economy, Vietnam’s JETP will demonstrate that economic growth can be decoupled from fossil fuel energy consumption.