Beyond 2.6°C: Frauke Röser on COP30, Fossil Fuels, and the Future of Climate Ambition

17 Dec 2025
Beyond 2.6°C: Frauke Röser on COP30, Fossil Fuels, and the Future of Climate Ambition
Authors: ACE Partners
Authoring Organisation: ACE Partners - Asia Clean Energy Partners
Posted At: 12-2025

In December 2025, governments gathered in Belém, Brazil, for the 30th Conference of the Parties (COP30) against a backdrop of record heat, torrential rains, and growing calls to move away from fossil fuels. The final outcome fell short of expectations for many. Fossil fuels were not mentioned in the agreed text, and the existing Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) still point to a dangerous 2.6°C warming trajectory, far above the level of 1.5°C called for in the Paris Climate Agreement and by science. 

Peter du Pont of SIPET Connect spoke with Frauke Röser, Co-Founder and Director at NewClimate Institute, about what COP30 revealed about the state of global climate politics, the emerging agenda of “transitioning away from fossil fuels”, and what all of this means for countries working on the energy transition, including in Southeast Asia. 

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SIPET Connect: To start, could you tell us about NewClimate Institute and the work you focus on? 

Frauke: NewClimate Institute is a not-for-profit think tank that follows the international climate policy agenda. Our main focus has been on just transitions, the mitigation agenda, and the finance agenda, and we are also increasingly engaging on the issues of adaptation, resilience, and loss and damage. But the core of what we do is really around just transitions, mitigation, and the finance that goes with them. 

We are based in Germany with two offices, one in Berlin and one in Cologne. We are now roughly 50 people, with a very diverse team of more than 20 nationalities. We work on climate policy and transitions, and we track climate action, climate finance, and carbon markets. Article 6 and international carbon trading are also important strands of our work, and we follow those discussions quite closely at the COP. 

One of the things we are known for is the Climate Action Tracker, which looks at what countries are putting forward in the form of their NDCs and climate targets and relate that back to the Paris Agreement goals. This is one of the key inputs we provide at COPs. Beyond that, COPs are also a space for us to follow negotiations, exchange with peers, meet partners, and stay in touch with the international community. 

 

SIPET Connect: How did COP30 in Belém feel on the ground, especially for civil society and indigenous representatives? 

Frauke: In some ways, it was a relief. I was happy that, for the first time in several years, the COP was held in a democratic country again. Compared with Azerbaijan, Dubai, and Egypt, the visibility of civil society and particularly indigenous representatives was very high. That was really good to see. 

At the same time, you could really feel climate change in a very immediate way. It was extremely hot. I stayed a bit longer in Brazil, and the temperature difference coming back to Germany was a real shock for my body. During the COP, there were torrential rains that were so loud you sometimes could not have a conversation because of the sound of rain on the rooftops, and then there was the big fire. So it had all the drama of the climate crisis around it. In that sense, it brought the issue home very clearly. 

Unfortunately, though, the political outcome did not fully reflect the urgency that you could feel there. 

 

SIPET Connect: Going into COP30, what were you hoping to accomplish, and which issues were you following most closely? 

Frauke: I would not say we had targets in the sense of expecting the COP to suddenly deliver what is needed, given the climate crisis we are facing. In the current geopolitical setting, it was clear that the international community was not going to magically come together in Belém and decide on ambitious climate action. Especially with the United States pulling back in various ways, it was a difficult set-up. 

Personally, I was following three things most closely: the discussions on transitioning away from fossil fuels, the just transition agenda, and the related debates on levels of climate finance. Finance is always at the core of the negotiations and often the stumbling block that prevents things from moving fast and ambitiously. 

Other colleagues of mine focused more on Article 6 and international carbon markets, which we view quite critically, and on the overall picture of NDCs and where we stand relative to the Paris Agreement. 

 

SIPET Connect: Many governments updated their NDCs ahead of COP30. What did we learn from these new NDCs, and what does that mean for the energy transition? 

Frauke: You are right that some updated NDCs are more ambitious, and that is positive. But others are not. Some major economies, such as India, had not even submitted their NDCs. And the EU submitted its NDC very late, essentially a day before the COP. 

China’s NDC is somewhat more ambitious but still short of what we know the country can do, and compared to what we see happening in the real economy. That is an important point: NDCs are a useful political tool and framing, but they often do not portray reality very well. In some cases, like the EU, the real economy is moving much faster and in a much more ambitious way than what is written in the targets, and countries then overachieve their NDCs. 

Overall, in our analysis, the current NDCs will lead to a temperature increase 2.6°C by the end of the century, largely the same as last year, meaning that the new 2035 NDCs did not change the picture. That is pretty disastrous when you look at the scientific models. I cannot quote all the exact submission statistics off the top of my head, but I can say that many NDCs came late, some were not very ambitious, and some big emitters had not submitted at all. 

SIPET Connect: One of the initiatives that drew attention at COP30 was the “Transitioning Away from Fossil Fuels” (TAFF) agenda. How do you see that process? 

Frauke: The TAFF initiative was indeed one of the more interesting developments. It was started by Colombia and at some point there were more than 80 countries behind it, including many European countries. 

There was quite a bit of hope that this initiative would find its way into a final COP decision—some kind of formal language or text. In the end, it did not. Fossil fuels were not even mentioned in the final outcome, which was disappointing. 

For me, the main take-away is that there is now a large and significant group of countries that clearly want to pursue an agenda of transitioning away from fossil fuels. They have organized themselves around this and are continuing. There will be a conference in Colombia early next year, co-hosted with the Netherlands, to follow up on TAFF. 

Many of the countries behind TAFF are fossil fuel importers. From an energy security and independence perspective, you would expect them to have a strong interest in accelerating this transition. On the other side, you have fossil fuel exporting countries who are trying to stall it. I do not think they can stop it. At best, they can delay it. That is really what they are aiming for. 

So even though TAFF did not make it into the final text of COP30 declaration, it has created a movement and a platform that I hope will grow into the kind of multilateral collaboration we need. 

SIPET Connect: Given the current geopolitical context, how do you see the role of COPs now? Can they still deliver meaningful outcomes? 

Frauke: If you think back, the Paris Agreement is almost a miracle. I do not think we would be able to negotiate such an agreement today. The idea that 194 countries would agree unanimously on something that ambitious seems almost inconceivable now. 

So we have to be realistic. Having a unanimous, highly ambitious agreement from 194 countries is extremely difficult. Even COP decisions are, to some extent, voluntary. That is why it is important to have issue-focused coalitions and initiatives like TAF. They allow a “coalition of the willing” to move ahead together. 

At the same time, COPs remain extremely important. They show that multilateralism is not dead. They provide a forum where all countries have to come together and, in a very transparent way, show the world where they stand. That visibility is crucial. 

You can also see that something is at stake simply by looking at who shows up. There are now many lobbyists attending COP. If nothing in these processes threatened existing business models, they would not bother to be there. So what happens at COP, including NDC updates and long-term strategies, does matter, because it shapes the direction of travel and the policy signals that follow. 

 

SIPET Connect: You mentioned climate finance and the need for just transitions. What did COP30 change on those fronts, and what still needs to happen? 

Frauke: On finance, there was some progress, particularly around adaptation finance, which I see as a positive step. But in terms of the overall provision of climate finance, there is still a long way to go. 

We need to move forward with reforming the international financial architecture, phasing out fossil fuel subsidies, and making sure we are not only mobilizing more investment for green sectors but also redirecting investment away from brown sectors and into green ones. It is not enough to simply add green finance on top of continued fossil investment. 

On just transitions, there was more explicit recognition of what transitions mean for people, workers, communities, indigenous peoples. That social dimension was brought into the debate more formally, which I think is a success. But again, these are only starting points. The key is whether countries now turn that recognition into policies, finance, and support mechanisms that actually help people through the transition. 

 

SIPET Connect: The funding environments over the past year has been extremely challenging for many climate organizations. How has this affected NewClimate Institute and your peers? 

Frauke: It has been difficult. We did not have USAID funding ourselves, but we are impacted by the ripple effects. When U.S.-based organizations are hit by funding crises, they turn more to European funders. At the same time, many foundations with links to U.S. corporates have partly pulled back from climate work. And then you also have governments like Germany reducing some budgets. 

So the squeeze is coming from all sides: more competition for European and foundation funding, and fewer resources overall. Organizations like ours have had to adapt—rethinking funding models, being more strategic, and trying to protect the quality of our work while dealing with more uncertainty. 

 

SIPET Connect: Many of our readers are working on the energy transition in Southeast Asia. What should governments and private sector actors in this region take away from COP30? 

Frauke: I would highlight a few things. 

First, transitioning away from fossil fuels is a question of when, not whether. That message came through quite clearly, even if it is not yet reflected in the formal COP text. Countries that prepare early will be better off economically and socially. 

Second, the just transition is now more firmly part of the conversation. Governments need to think about what the transition means for people and communities, including indigenous communities, and to design policies that reflect that. 

Third, for public sector actors, it is important to have a longer-term vision of where the economy is going and what is actually beneficial for the country and its communities. When you look at the hard numbers, you usually find that moving faster on the transition is economically and socially more advantageous than delaying it. 

For private investors, everything depends on signals and the framework they operate in. They follow investment opportunities. When governments send clear, reliable signals about the direction of travel and put the right incentives in place, the private sector responds. COP30 did not fully provide that clarity, but initiatives like TAFF and the stronger emphasis on social and justice issues still send important impulses. 

 

SIPET Connect: How important are NDCs themselves as signals for investors, and where do they fall short? 

Frauke: I am not sure investors read NDCs in detail. NDCs are high-level political signals about where a country says it wants to go. They need to be underpinned by concrete policies, sectoral roadmaps, and regulatory changes that investors actually respond to. 

That said, NDCs and long-term strategies do matter. The level of lobbying around them shows that. If they were irrelevant, you would not see so many actors trying to influence them. They frame what comes next in terms of laws, regulations, and incentives. 

Ultimately, though, each country has to take these high-level targets and translate them into very specific plans and policies across sectors. That is what gives investors the clarity they need. 

 

SIPET Connect: In spite of the 2.6°C trajectory, you still sound cautiously hopeful. Where do you see signs of progress? 

Frauke: I would say I am worried and hopeful at the same time. Clearly, 2.6°C is not acceptable. But a few things give me hope. 

One is that multilateralism is still functioning on some level. Countries are still coming together at the COPs, and that matters a lot. It forces them to be transparent about where they stand, and it keeps the pressure on those who are blocking progress. 

Another is what we see in the real economy. In many parts of the world, the deployment of renewable energy and the falling costs of technologies show that the transition is happening and that it is unstoppable. 

And if you compare where we are now with ten years ago, we have moved the needle. In 2015 the current policies scenario led to 3.6°C of warming by 2100.. Now we are at 2.6°C. That is still far from where we want to be, but it shows that action makes a difference. 

Looking ahead, I think one of the important next steps is for more countries—maybe not all 194, but a critical mass—to adopt credible roadmaps for phasing down and phasing out fossil fuels. Even if it is “only” 80 countries out of 194, such roadmaps can send powerful signals to investors and real-economy actors. 

So yes, progress is too slow, and it is not yet enough. But things are moving in the right direction. Our task now is to speed up that movement and make sure that the transition is fair.