Southeast Asia’s Energy Crossroads: The cost of gas expansion versus the promise of renewables

Thailand has huge rooftop solar potential that could offer both benefits of diversifying the country's renewable energy sources and enabling distributed generation at the consumer level through behind-the-metre installations.Despite a surge of rooftop solar PV installations in 2023, driven by high electricity prices, the current adoption rate of rooftop solar PV systems inThailand is still much lower than its vast potential. This gap is due to several policy, regulatory and financial risk barriers. This study systematically identifies the risks associated with rooftop solar PV investment in Thailand  and quantifies these risks’ impacts on financial costs (i.e., the cost of equity and the cost of debt). In addition, the study highlights suggested policy and financial de-risking instruments that can support rooftop solar PV deployment in Thailand.

This inaugural Jelajah Energi was conducted in Central Java as part of our collaboration with the Central Java Provincial Government. The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) has been working with the Provincial Government of Central Java to accelerate the utilization of solar energy through the Central Java Solar Province initiative since 2019. Through various research activities, capacity building, and information dissemination, solar energy is encouraged to become one of the main sources of energy fulfillment in Central Java. In this province, various stories of energy transition can also be found, with many types of renewable energy and stories of people feeling the benefits.

The “Philippine Power Outlook: Reviewing the Adequacy of Power Supply for April to June 2024” report examines power supply projections in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao in the second quarter of 2024. It does so based on the power demand and supply outlook presented by the Department of Energy (DOE). It also delves into the impacts of the El Niño weather phenomenon to the country’s hydropower capacity.

Indonesia aims to transition from coal to renewable energy. In November 2023, Indonesia's Comprehensive Investment and Policy Plan (CIPP) was published, outlining the power sector emissions reduction roadmap. However, critical elements are missing. This report develops a high-ambition pathway for coal transition by combining a global integrated assessment model (GCAM), a power system dispatch model (PLEXOS), and bottom-up analyses. Download here.

Authored by Akbar Bagaskara,  Maria A. Borrero, Ryna Cui, Claire Squire, Jiehong Lou, Camryn Dahl, Molly Schreier, Raditya Wiranegara, Fabby Tumiwa, Nate Hultman, Deon Arinaldo.

This paper by the Climate Finance Network Thailand evaluates the financial implications of decommissioning coal and gas power plants in Thailand. Using discounted cash flow analysis, it examines three scenarios, highlighting potential stranded asset risks and the need for strategic energy transition planning aligned with climate goals.

Access the report here.